With the whirlwind of updates and conflicting stories coming out around a potential ban of TikTok going into effect on Sunday, January 19, 2025 here in the U.S., we thought it might be time to discuss who stands to win if TikTok goes bye-bye.
There’s been considerable discussion about who would benefit the most if TikTok were to go away, and I’ll give you a big hint:
Every other social media company.
Ok, now that we got the obvious out of the way, let’s dive into the details.
When you look at the numbers a handful of key players stand to gain, primarily within the existing social media and advertising landscape.
- Meta (Facebook and Instagram): Meta is projected to be the biggest winner.
- Instagram’s Reels, a direct TikTok competitor, is already a significant driver of user engagement, accounting for over 50% of user time spent on the platform.
- eMarketer projects that Instagram and Facebook would absorb 22.5% and 17.1% of TikTok’s reallocated ad spending, respectively.
- Google (YouTube): Google is another major beneficiary.
- YouTube Shorts boasts over 2 billion logged-in monthly users.
- eMarketer predicts YouTube would capture roughly 10.7% of the ad dollars previously spent on TikTok.
- Other Social Media Platforms: Several other platforms are expected to see a boost.
- Snapchat, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Reddit, and X (formerly Twitter) are collectively projected to receive around 18.3% of TikTok’s reallocated ad spend.
- Some of these platforms have already invested in short-video formats similar to TikTok.
- Other rivals that are new to the scene, but who have not yet gained enough market share to really warrant the reporting (but we’ll do it anyways) include BlueSky, Mastodon, and Meta’s Threads.
- Elon Musk and X (if acquisition occurs): Recent reports (though denied by TikTok) have suggested the possibility of Elon Musk acquiring TikTok.
- If this were to happen, Elon Musk and X would likely benefit substantially, inheriting TikTok’s user base and ad revenue – which X desperately needs.
- Marketers: Because marketers have been preparing for the possibility of a TikTok ban they are ready to reallocate their ad spend to other platforms. This means the transition of ad dollars could happen quickly.
With new news dropping daily we’re just trying to keep up. Last minute legal challenges and potential acquisition deals could alter the landscape. However, based on current projections, Meta and Google appear poised to reap the largest financial rewards from a TikTok ban, with other social media platforms also positioned to gain.